NEW YORK, United States / RankWire.AI / – On Friday, oil prices experienced a significant increase, with Brent crude hitting $110 per barrel for the first time since May. The rally was driven by fears that escalating tensions in the Middle East could further constrain supply. Brent for December settlement rose by $3.94, or 3.7%, ending at $109.86, marking its highest close since May 19. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $3.44, or 3.5%, closing at $101.41, its peak since September 17. Market participants also evaluated Russia’s ability to supply diesel.
Both benchmarks recorded strong weekly gains, with WTI climbing 10.4% this week and Brent adding 4.9%, marking its second consecutive weekly increase. Brent remained relatively unchanged on Thursday, while WTI advanced more than 3%, causing the spread between the two to narrow as WTI outperformed Brent. Bloomberg indicated that Friday’s movement was the first notable shift in an otherwise range-bound week. Earlier in October, Brent had surged above $103 before the latest rise.
The primary concern for traders continues to be security risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past 10 days, attacks in the region have increased, and Iran announced it was intensifying strikes in response to a U.S. blockade of its ports and the tougher sanctions imposed last month. Analysts from Kpler noted that these attacks have sharply reduced crude flows from the Gulf. A coalition led by Saudi Arabia reported intercepting a ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu, a city on the Red Sea, with initial reports indicating no damage, according to Rapidan Energy Group.
Refined fuel markets climb due to diesel concerns and refinery disruptions
Fears over supply extended into refined fuels as well. Ukraine targeted a Russian refinery on Thursday after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated Kyiv would abandon a ceasefire on energy sites previously announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Industry sources told Reuters that the Ryazan refinery suspended a primary crude distillation unit following a drone attack. Dennis Kissler from BOK Financial expressed doubts about Russia’s capacity to supply diesel, noting that Middle East risks and Russian supply uncertainties continued to drive traders’ buying activity.
Diesel futures settled at $4.90 per gallon in New York, according to Bloomberg data. European diesel futures have more than doubled this year. Refineries elsewhere increased processing rates to compensate for Russian shortfalls. Although President Trump stated that Moscow would honor a deal to release Russian diesel into global markets, a bill introduced by U.S. lawmakers on Friday aims to block this arrangement. The outage at Ryazan adds to the uncertainty over whether this fuel will reach consumers soon.
Strategic reserves and international agencies step in to stabilize supply
To mitigate supply disruptions, emergency stockpiles are being utilized. The International Energy Agency agreed on Thursday to release over 20 million barrels of fuel. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Energy announced on Friday a call for proposals to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Previously, the U.S. had agreed to lend 172 million barrels under a broader effort by about 30 IEA members to release a total of 400 million barrels.
Analysts anticipate that geopolitical risks will continue to support prices. According to Energy Aspects, Brent and WTI reversed earlier losses on Friday, with ongoing escalation risks likely to sustain the market. Rebecca Babin from CIBC Private Wealth Group noted that traders are factoring risk back into prices after a brief pause, especially ahead of the weekend. A significant U.S. crude inventory draw, linked to hurricane-related shutdowns, also contributed to the price support. Brent finished the week just below $110.