ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal said updated official estimates show poverty and economic inequality worsening over the past seven years, with the national poverty headcount rising to 28.9% in fiscal year 2024-25 from 21.9% in 2018-19. The estimates put about 69.4 million to 70 million people below the poverty line, defined at Rs 8,484 per adult equivalent per month, as the government published new figures based on the latest nationwide household survey.
The estimates show rural households bearing the sharpest increase, with rural poverty rising to 36.2% from 28.2% over the period, while urban poverty rose to 17.4% from 11%. The report also cited a rise in income inequality, with the Gini coefficient increasing to 32.7 in 2024-25 from 28.4 in 2018-19. Separate labor market indicators included an unemployment rate of 7.1%, described in the estimates as the highest level in more than two decades.
Poverty rose across all four provinces, according to the estimates. Punjab’s poverty rate increased to 23.3% from 16.5% in 2018-19, while Sindh rose to 32.6% from 24.5%. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa increased to 35.3% from 28.7%, and Balochistan rose to 47% from about 41.8% to 42% in 2018-19. The national figure is near the level recorded in 2013-14, when poverty was estimated at 29.5%, and marks a reversal from the downward trend reported in earlier survey rounds.
Survey-based estimates
The Planning Ministry said the poverty and inequality calculations were prepared after completion of the Household Integrated Economic Survey, conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics from September 2024 to June 2025, covering more than 32,000 households nationwide, including Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Officials said a 17-member Poverty Estimation Committee, chaired by economist Dr G.M. Arif, reviewed the work and maintained a consistent “cost of basic needs” method to allow comparison with prior estimates.
The accompanying assessment said households faced a prolonged squeeze on purchasing power as price increases outpaced income growth. It cited high inflation, energy price adjustments, exchange rate depreciation and higher taxation, particularly indirect taxes, as factors that raised the cost of essential consumption. The estimates also reported real monthly household income falling to Rs 31,127 in 2024-25 from Rs 35,454 in 2019, while real monthly household expenses declined to Rs 29,980 from Rs 31,711, reflecting reduced consumption in inflation-adjusted terms.
Budget and policy focus
Iqbal said the updated figures underscore the need for growth that lifts incomes and employment, and he called for measures to raise export performance and expand small and medium enterprises and cottage industries at provincial and district levels. He also highlighted a shift in development spending capacity between federal and provincial governments, saying total development budgets were about Rs 4,000 billion in 2018, split evenly between the federation and provinces, but that the federal share has since fallen to about Rs 1,000 billion while provinces hold about Rs 3,000 billion.
He said allocations under the Public Sector Development Programme declined to about 0.9% of the total budget from about 2.8% in earlier years, and urged provinces to adopt clearer mechanisms for distributing development resources at the local level. The minister also pointed to expanded social protection spending, including an increase in the Benazir Income Support Programme budget to Rs 722 billion from Rs 592 billion, while saying cash transfers alone cannot reduce poverty and that “graduation” initiatives are intended to help households move beyond reliance on assistance – By Content Syndication Services.