ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty throughout the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this figure in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty was assessed using the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. The poverty rate in Pakistan at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. This rise positioned Pakistan as the primary contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively represent another 47% of the population living below the $3 threshold across the region. Together with Pakistan, these three nations make up roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, about 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty resides in this region, with Sub-Saharan Africa holding a larger share. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
The poverty situation in Pakistan also worsened at the higher $4.20 daily threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of people below this level increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. In 2024, the rate reached approximately 48%, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional analysis attributed this decline to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustment. These shocks are cited as key drivers behind Pakistan’s deteriorating poverty indicators.
Poverty burden intensifies following years of economic shocks
A new household survey conducted in early 2026 led to a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. Pakistan’s updated data pushed MENAAP’s estimated 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Pakistan’s economy has shown signs of recovery with positive growth, yet poverty rates remain high. The latest projections indicate a GDP growth of 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027. Despite economic expansion, inflation is expected to outpace growth, with the 2027 rate remaining above the 2026 estimate.
Changes in regional classification impact poverty comparisons
The 48% share also results from a statistical adjustment that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank’s classification system shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not modify the country’s geographic identity or income classification. According to Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad, the new grouping affected regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations, influencing the presentation of regional poverty shares.
The October update also highlighted weakened economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026, with regional output projected to contract by 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced challenges from conflict, disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing countries, including Pakistan, are expected to remain comparatively resilient, with a projected growth rate of 4.3% in 2026. Ongoing increases in food and energy costs continue to strain household purchasing power across multiple nations.